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Some
players believe you shouldn't insure a bad hand, but you
should insure a good one, like 20 for example. They feel
that if the dealer has blackjack, you avoid losing money
with a good hand. And without a blackjack, the dealer will
have a hard time trying to beat your 20. But the truth is,
all things being equal, 20 would be the worst possible hand
to insure!
The reason is, in order to win the Insurance bet the dealer
has to have a 10 in the hole. But your 20 just took two
10's out of play (presuming you don't have Ace/9). Now the
Insurance bet, which is a bad bet to begin with has just
gotten worse! Here's the thing.
The instant you're dealt 20 against an Ace up, you're a
solid favorite to make money. You're in a positive situation
even though you could lose to a blackjack. But if you decide
to insure your 20, you're accepting 2-to-1 odds on a new,
second bet that is now probably 2.3-to-1 against winning.
That adds a negative element to your position.
Let's spend
some time talking about negative progression. Generally,
it is frowned upon by most of the professional gambling
community because of its potential for R.O.K. (risk of ruin),
and justly so.
The primary method that
it is compared to is the Martingale system that tells you
to double-up each time you lose, because when you eventually
win the loss sequence, you'll win all your money back plus
your original bet. Hamm, now let's see what happens if we
lose, Say, tell times in a row starting at, let's say, $5.
Look at the following figure and see where you stand on
the Martingale side com¬pared to the CLB side.
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